Betting theory
How does the bookmaker industry work?
Before someone can make a profit with sport bets it is important to know how the bookmakers work. When all the customers would have winning results the bookmakers can't exist.
So the bookmakers have to payout less than the winnings amount are. That means that the odds offers must have the value so that finally there are loosing bets and winning bets but there is an amount which stay in the bookmaker company.
Let's have a look at an example:
We will choose the match AalborgAarhus. Looking in a bookmaker company the odds for the under/over results are for Under (02 goals): 1,95 and for over( at least 3 goals): 1,75.
In this situation the result over has smaller odds so tha bookmaker estimated that the result over is a slightly favorite. Maybe the estimation for over is about 55% and for under 45%. After this estimation we can suppose that 55% of the players will bet for over and 45% for under.
Let's make the calculations now:
When 55% of the players place a bet for over and 45% for under finally the total betting amount will be 55%*total betting amount for over + 45%*total betting amount for under.
we suppose that the total betting for over and the total betting for under are the same for instance 10.000€ for each result, than the total betting amoung is 20.000€. Now let's see what is the pay out amount.
If the outcoming result is over the pay outs are 10.000*1.75=17.500€ from the 20.000€ total betting amount. So we can see that 20.000€17.500€=2.500€ go to the bookmaker.
if the outcoming result is under tha payouts are 10.000*1.95=19.500€ from the 20.000€ total betting amount. So we can see that 20.000€19.500€=500€ go to the bookmaker.
How much keep the bookmaker?
After the above example there is a rule how we calculate what percentage of the total betting amount the bookmaker keep.
Suppose the outcoming result for over(more than 2 goals) is 1.75 and for under(02 goals) is 1.95.
Calculation: (1/1.75)+(1/1.95)=0.5714+0.513=1.084 Now divide this result with 1. 1/1.084=0.9225. So the average payout percentage is about 92.25% and 100%92.25%=7.75% (is calling rake) will go to the bookmaker. So you can see if someone combines matches means that the bookmaker will have more income. Combining 2 games means the payout will be 92.25%*92.25%=85,1%, combining 3 games tha payout will be 92.25%*92.25%*92.25%=78,5% and so on.
Is it possible to loose the bookmaker?
In normal circumstances the bookmaker won't loose. In the previous example the total betting amount for over (1.75) was 11.000€ and for under(1.95) 9.000€. Now consider the following example:
A player with a huge bankroll bets is very sure that the outcoming result will be the over and he bets 5.000€ for the over. Now when he is right the total betting amount for over is 16.000€ and for under 9.000€. So when we calculate the payouts we will have:
If the result is over the payouts are 16.000*1.75=28.000€ and the incomes are 25.000€. So the bookmaker would make a lost of 3.000€. Maybe you have seen changes of the odds for a matches. This is the reason why the bookmakers change the odds. They have to keep a balance between under and over. In this situation when the bookmaker realize that, the odds for the over will go down and for under they will go up.
So they decrease the payouts for over and increase the payouts for under when new bets were placed.
Can a player win against the bookmaker?
The most players are loosing players for that reason exist the bookmakers. Only few players can win against them. The right way to do that is to find value bets. Consider a match with the following odds: 12.00 : X3.20 : 23.5
If the propability to out come the odd 2.00 is 50% after long time you will not loose and not win. Let's say you play such matches 100 times and bet 10€. So your result will be: 100€*10€*50%100€*10€*50%=0€.
But if you find a match with odds 2.0 and you estimate the percentage is 60%. Then after 100 bets your result will be: 100€*10€*60%100€*10€*40%*=600€400€=+200€. That means after 100 bets you will have a profit of 200€! This is the way to beat the bookmaker. Finding such games isn't easy. You have to collect useful information about a game to have a profit againt the bookmaker. It is hard but not impossible.
